讲座题目：

Finding Stability in a Time of Prolonged Crisis :Unconventional Policy Rules for Japan

在长期危机中寻求稳定：日本的非常规政策规则

时间：2023年12月19日,14:00-16:00

地点：腾讯会议（会议号：651-0364-2728）

报告人：Paul McNelis (美国福德汉姆大学加百列商学院金融学讲席教授)

报告摘要

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model representing several key characteristics of Japan ,namely, a large open economy, with large fiscal deficits and increasing amounts of debt held by domestic residents, through recurring sets of adverse shocks to productivity and positive shocks to government spending. We compare optimal simple rules for consumption tax rates, a Taylor rule with negative interest rates, and a quantitative easing rule, for reducing government debt held by the banking system, as well as optimizing welfare. In times of crisis, we show that the QE policy rule outperforms optimally-derived simple tax-rate rules or Taylor rules with negative interest rates for mitigating the costs of post-crisis adjustment and debt overhang.

报告人介绍

Paul McNelis

Paul McNelis教授毕业于美国约翰霍普金斯大学，目前为美国波士顿学院经济与金融系访问教授，与福德汉姆大学加百列商学院金融学讲席教授（荣休）。他的研究领域为计算宏观经济学与国际金融。他在Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Financial Stability等期刊发表论文多篇，并在多个国家和地区的中央银行担任研究员。